The conflict between the US and Israel with Iran, as well as the energy crisis emerging around the Strait of Hormuz, has directly impacted the cryptocurrency market.
The editorial office reports that on the first day of the hostilities, the market reacted with a sharp risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin fell from approximately $65,000 to $63,000 on February 28. This decline created additional pressure for investors against the backdrop of the cryptocurrency's previous long-term weakening.
However, the initial panic did not turn into a deep market collapse. Bitcoin soon returned to pre-war levels and even surpassed the $66,700 mark. This indicated that the market viewed the Middle East crisis as a short-term shock rather than a reason for complete capitulation.
In March, Bitcoin primarily traded within the $66,000-$71,000 range. During this period, although oil prices rose due to risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the cryptocurrency market did not experience an equally sharp and sustained sell-off.
In April, however, Bitcoin's behavior changed. The cryptocurrency's price began to react more sensitively to news regarding a possible ceasefire, the resumption of talks, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Positive diplomatic signals pushed the price into the $72,000-$77,000 zone, while news of stalled negotiations increased selling pressure.
This dynamic indicates that Bitcoin did not behave as a classic safe-haven asset during the crisis. A safe haven refers to an asset that investors turn to for protection during times of crisis. Gold is considered a more traditional protective asset in such situations. Bitcoin, however, resembled more of a risk asset in this crisis: it initially fell due to fear, then rose when risk appetite recovered.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin did not behave entirely like stock markets either. While the energy crisis and inflation fears put pressure on stocks, the cryptocurrency market recovered more quickly in some phases. This is explained by institutional investors remaining in the market and long-term buyers taking advantage of price drops.
The Strait of Hormuz plays an indirect but powerful role for digital currencies. The closure of the strait increases the price of oil and liquefied natural gas, which in turn raises inflation risk. When inflation rises, it becomes difficult for central banks to cut interest rates. High interest rates are considered a negative signal for Bitcoin and other risky assets.
It was also noted that the market's reaction became shorter each time throughout April. While initial news created stronger price fluctuations, the impact of subsequent signals usually faded within one to three days. This indicates that investors have somewhat adapted to the crisis.
The main conclusion for the cryptocurrency market is that Bitcoin is no longer driven solely by technology and liquidity news. Energy routes, oil prices, diplomatic negotiations, and military escalation also play a significant role in price formation.
The current landscape creates a dual risk for Bitcoin. A scenario of a ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could provide an additional upward impetus for cryptocurrencies. However, a prolonged conflict, oil remaining above $100, and increased inflationary pressure could expose the market to a new wave of selling.
Thus, the Middle East crisis was not merely a military-political event for digital currencies, but a significant market test operating through energy, inflation, and global liquidity. Bitcoin emerged from this test not as a complete safe-haven asset, but as a more resilient risk asset than before.