Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stated that it could take several months for the oil market to return to its previous level after the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Novak noted that even if the strait reopens, the supply balance in the market will not normalize quickly. He explained that a large amount of oil could not be brought to the market during the crisis, and a significant accumulation of ships was observed in the region.
The editorial office reports that the Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most critical transit routes for global oil trade. According to Reuters, the strait holds strategic importance for approximately 20 percent of the world's oil flow. Therefore, supply disruptions in the region affect not only the Gulf countries but also the global energy supply chain, particularly Asia and Europe.
Among the most important problems in the oil market after the crisis are production losses, tanker traffic congestion, disruptions in supply plans, and logistical delays. According to Goldman Sachs' assessment, a significant portion of production in the Gulf was halted during the crisis; most of this was not due to direct physical damage but rather related to precautionary measures, inventory management, and logistical difficulties.
Market forecasts indicate that the recovery will be gradual. Goldman Sachs predicts that approximately 70 percent of Gulf production could recover within three months, and 88 percent within six months. However, tanker capacity, port congestion, insurance costs, field repairs, and infrastructure problems in some countries could affect the recovery period.