Globally renowned Nobel laureate and physicist David Gross has warned about the increasing risk of nuclear war. According to Newsweek, Gross believes that amid current geopolitical tensions, humanity could face a serious nuclear threat in the coming decades.
The editorial office reports, citing the source, that the physicist stated in an interview with Live Science that the probability of nuclear war now appears higher compared to previous periods. According to him, while the annual risk of nuclear war was estimated at approximately 1 percent after the Cold War, this figure could now be close to 2 percent. Gross presented this as a probability based on a “rough calculation”.
Based on this calculation, an annual 2 percent risk brings the average expected time of a nuclear conflict in the long term to approximately 35 years. Newsweek writes that this approach is based on principles similar to the probabilistic models used to calculate the half-life of radioactive substances.
Gross linked the increased nuclear risk to several factors. He cited the ongoing war in Europe, tensions around Iran, the risks of a possible confrontation between India and Pakistan, as well as the growing number of countries possessing nuclear weapons as key reasons. According to the physicist, the weakening of arms control mechanisms and the potential use of AI in military systems make the situation even more dangerous.
Newsweek notes that Gross's statement does not mean that nuclear war is inevitable. The physicist pointed to the restoration of dialogue between states and the signing of stronger international agreements as the main way out.
It should be noted that Gross was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2004. He also recently received the $3 million Special Breakthrough Prize for his lifetime contributions to fundamental physics.