In a statement released by Fitch rating agency, various scenarios regarding the impact of potential closure periods of the Strait of Hormuz on oil prices were presented. These assessments highlight the potential consequences of existing tensions in global energy markets.
Redaksiya reports that according to the agency's analysis, if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for a period of 6 months, the price of a barrel of Brent crude is projected to reach an average of 120 US dollars in 2026. If the strait remains closed for 3 months, this price is expected to rise to 100 US dollars.
In the three-month closure scenario, the price of a barrel of Brent crude is expected to rise to an average of 130 US dollars during the closure period and then fall to around 90 US dollars by the end of the year. In the six-month closure scenario, the price is projected to jump to the range of 130-170 US dollars during the closure period and fall to 90 US dollars by the end of the year. The statement notes that the baseline expectation for the price of a barrel of Brent crude in 2026 is 70 US dollars, a forecast that was 63 US dollars prior to the war due to an increase in market supply. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is projected to cause a loss of 15 million barrels per day in oil transit volume, but despite this, small volumes are expected to continue to pass through the strait. It is emphasized that fluctuations in oil prices will continue, geopolitical risk premiums are very high, and uncertainty remains high regarding the duration of the conflict, the status of the Strait of Hormuz closure, and disruptions in oil transit.