Recent events in oil markets have led to important discussions regarding the impact of sanctions on Russia's oil exports and their effect on prices. Experts put forward various hypotheses concerning the imposition of sanctions, while oil traders closely monitor the situation.
Redaksiya reports that analysts note approximately 50 million barrels of Russian crude oil from "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" are currently being loaded or transported, but will not reach the port or buyer before sanctions come into effect on November 21. This oil will likely need to be sold at significant discounts, but is ultimately expected to find a buyer.
US sanctions against "Lukoil" and "Rosneft", Russia's two largest oil producers, will come into force on Friday, threatening approximately half of the country's crude oil exports. However, oil traders believe that Trump's new sanctions will not have a significant impact, "Bloomberg" writes.
Currently, "Brent" crude, considered the benchmark in the global oil market, is trading at approximately $64 per barrel, which is about 20% below its mid-June peak. Therefore, traders are not panicking much over Washington's more aggressive approach to limiting energy revenues from Moscow.
There are many methods to stop tracking oil: ship-to-ship transfers, renaming or repainting tankers, remarking cargo at coastal storage facilities – these are just some of the widespread methods.
One of Russia's largest oil refineries in Ryazan, owned by "Rosneft" and supplying fuel to the Moscow region, was put out of action until the end of the month following drone strikes by Ukrainian military forces on November 15.
Traders also know that US President Donald Trump prefers low prices at gas stations rather than taking steps that would scare the market and significantly increase the value of energy carriers.
The "sanctions" imposed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces against Kremlin oil refineries remain more effective. For instance, on November 16, a drone strike hit the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, owned by "Rosneft".
The second reason is that history shows that even the harshest sanctions are effective for a period, but their effectiveness diminishes over time.
Therefore, despite how good everything looks on paper, fuel from Russia is not expected to be blocked indefinitely. The price of oil now speaks for itself.
Following Ukrainian UAV attacks on November 11 and 14, the Saratov oil refinery, which may remain inoperable until the end of the month, has been completely shut down.