Russia's economy is facing a series of difficulties, including declining revenues from oil exports, reduced demand for energy carriers, and the bursting of a "gold bubble" that financed the war. This situation is causing a rapid decrease in the sources for filling the country's budget.
Redaksiya reports that Russia's oil export revenues decreased by 24% last year due to sanctions imposed on companies like Rosneft and Lukoil, and began to fall rapidly in the last three months. Chinese state energy companies have largely stopped purchasing Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions. India is also reducing its imports.
David Fiffe, chief economist at the energy company Argus, noted that "there is a potential surplus of 3.5 million barrels per day. If OPEC does not pull back from the brink and limit production again, the price will fall to $30," emphasizing that as a result, Russian oil will hardly be sold.
According to The Telegraph, the explosive increase in gold prices since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine has increased the value of Russian reserves by more than $200 billion, compensating for the loss of revenues from oil and gas. This has allowed the Kremlin to avoid a deep economic crisis.
Furthermore, the Kremlin is facing pressure in Asia. China is rapidly increasing its production of cheap shale gas in the Sichuan region. In some areas, the production cost is only $0.23 per cubic meter, making it cheaper than Russian pipeline gas.
On January 22, the Russian Ministry of Finance spoke of monetary problems. In the Russian budget for 2026, oil is projected at a price of $59. At the same time, the average value of a barrel of Urals crude oil fell to $39 in December.
Alan Riley, a professor and expert on gas issues at the Atlantic Council, noted that "Putin's last big hope was gas sales to China, but now it is unclear if the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline will ever be built."
However, a 18% drop in gold prices last week has called into question the sustainability of this resource. Moreover, Russia has sold 71% of its National Wealth Fund's gold since 2022.
Gazprombank, a Russian state-owned bank, stated in its forecast that the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation could be completely depleted in a little over a year at current oil prices.
The publication notes that Vladimir Putin currently has reserves to continue the war at the current gold price of $4925, which is $1900 higher than three years ago.